In his latest statement DA leader Mmusi Maimane says, "A decade of DA delivery in Western Cape shows what is possible under clean, capable government".
He mentions DA-run Johannesburg's alleged "job creation" numbers and at the end, "Highlights from Premier Helen’s Zille’s Western Cape State of the Province Address", which include his and DA's repeated, problematic and false assertion the DA in the Western Cape (WC) "created" hundreds of thousands of "new" jobs.
From Zille's address: "508 000 new jobs have been created in the WC since the start of the administration’s first term."
Maimane previously used a figure of 487 000 (2018), recently DA MP Geordin Hill-Lewis 640 000 and now Zille 508 000. Hill-Lewis cites a speech Zille gave a year ago for his. Their figures differ - presumably from the same source - Zille - and none are verified or from an authority. At best it's Zille's and Maimane's and the cleaner's incorrect and economically ignorant interpretation of StatsSA's, or I think it so but who knows. Mostly likely a thumb suck.
"At 23%, the Western Cape has SA’s lowest unemployment rate, a full 14 percentage points below the national average of 37% on the expanded definition." This is from StatsSA. Note they're now using the expanded rate but in all formal communication, as this address is, the official rate is used. Previously, Maimane used the official definition. So subterfuge.
Until Q3 2018 Limpopo had the lowest official rate and Q4 was a decimal point below WC, i.e. both nominally 19%. Importantly, the WC cannot claim credit for the lowest national unemployment rate because it was about the same, or slightly lower, under the ANC up to 2009. It's just the way it is.
And the DA cannot claim credit for the province having a better matric pass than national because it always was so, except Gauteng. In fact, after the DA took over the WC in 2009, at the end of that year the pass rate dipped below than when the ANC ran it.
The DA and Zille clearly don't understand how the macro-economy works, and especially that national government, not provinces, make and implement policy. Investors invest largely on national economic and political factors. Provinces and cities can promote their regions and invite investment, and they have with limited success, e.g. Wesgro with its trade promotions. But that's negligible as Wesgro's own figures show - R17 billion investment (2017) creating only 6 000 direct and temporary jobs, say, half that permanent new jobs. Ball park, it takes one to two million rand investment to create one new job. If Zille's figure of 508 000 new jobs (or Geordin Hill-Lewis' 640 000) is to be believed, half a trillion rand was invested in the WC since 2009. Preposterous!
Therefore, as I've said so often before, their numbers are wrong, wrong, wrong! They don't know how to interpret economic statistics, which says much about the Zille's, WC treasury/finance department's et al competence.
He mentions DA-run Johannesburg's alleged "job creation" numbers and at the end, "Highlights from Premier Helen’s Zille’s Western Cape State of the Province Address", which include his and DA's repeated, problematic and false assertion the DA in the Western Cape (WC) "created" hundreds of thousands of "new" jobs.
From Zille's address: "508 000 new jobs have been created in the WC since the start of the administration’s first term."
Maimane previously used a figure of 487 000 (2018), recently DA MP Geordin Hill-Lewis 640 000 and now Zille 508 000. Hill-Lewis cites a speech Zille gave a year ago for his. Their figures differ - presumably from the same source - Zille - and none are verified or from an authority. At best it's Zille's and Maimane's and the cleaner's incorrect and economically ignorant interpretation of StatsSA's, or I think it so but who knows. Mostly likely a thumb suck.
"At 23%, the Western Cape has SA’s lowest unemployment rate, a full 14 percentage points below the national average of 37% on the expanded definition." This is from StatsSA. Note they're now using the expanded rate but in all formal communication, as this address is, the official rate is used. Previously, Maimane used the official definition. So subterfuge.
Until Q3 2018 Limpopo had the lowest official rate and Q4 was a decimal point below WC, i.e. both nominally 19%. Importantly, the WC cannot claim credit for the lowest national unemployment rate because it was about the same, or slightly lower, under the ANC up to 2009. It's just the way it is.
And the DA cannot claim credit for the province having a better matric pass than national because it always was so, except Gauteng. In fact, after the DA took over the WC in 2009, at the end of that year the pass rate dipped below than when the ANC ran it.
The DA and Zille clearly don't understand how the macro-economy works, and especially that national government, not provinces, make and implement policy. Investors invest largely on national economic and political factors. Provinces and cities can promote their regions and invite investment, and they have with limited success, e.g. Wesgro with its trade promotions. But that's negligible as Wesgro's own figures show - R17 billion investment (2017) creating only 6 000 direct and temporary jobs, say, half that permanent new jobs. Ball park, it takes one to two million rand investment to create one new job. If Zille's figure of 508 000 new jobs (or Geordin Hill-Lewis' 640 000) is to be believed, half a trillion rand was invested in the WC since 2009. Preposterous!
Therefore, as I've said so often before, their numbers are wrong, wrong, wrong! They don't know how to interpret economic statistics, which says much about the Zille's, WC treasury/finance department's et al competence.
The jobs numbers cannot be interpreted that way, bluntly. One must consider the increase in gross population/population growth and GDP rates in the period in question and other economic - manufacturing, trade, etc - data to determine the true number of new jobs created. In accounting we'd call balancing figures "book entries". That's what these numbers are, i.e. most of them recycled jobs, not new. I say "most" because there were new jobs, but not the number they say especially since the GDP declined from 2011 to present where it's below the population rate, i.e. negative real growth for a number of years now.
That's why the unemployment rate - official or expanded to put it in context - is the best and only indicator to use - it's pro-rata the working population. Not even StatsSA, which compiles the data from surveys, uses terms like "new" and "created" but the DA, Maimane and Oracle Helen do and go where experts fear to tread. Foolish, brave or stupid? I know it's complex, perhaps too complex for politicians to understand who mostly are not qualified for anything, a bit like journalists which Zille once was.
A few years ago I asked Wesgro and WC Economics Department for Tim Harris' and Alan Winde's claim the alleged skills shortage was harming the WC economy. No response from Harris and Winde's office promised to "investigate" (why investigate if they're making statements about it) and send me the information. They didn't. Ditto my recent request to them about their jobs claim.
Recently I warned these DA individuals by email that presenting false, unverified and unverifiable information to the National Assembly, as Hill-lewis did, and Zille the provincial legislature is against the law. They keep doing it to the public. Yet they continuously accuse the ANC of ethical violations. Let the public beware.
Interestingly, I don't know what the situation is now, but until c2016 Tshwane's and Jo'burg's economic growth rates were better than Cape Town's.
That's why the unemployment rate - official or expanded to put it in context - is the best and only indicator to use - it's pro-rata the working population. Not even StatsSA, which compiles the data from surveys, uses terms like "new" and "created" but the DA, Maimane and Oracle Helen do and go where experts fear to tread. Foolish, brave or stupid? I know it's complex, perhaps too complex for politicians to understand who mostly are not qualified for anything, a bit like journalists which Zille once was.
A few years ago I asked Wesgro and WC Economics Department for Tim Harris' and Alan Winde's claim the alleged skills shortage was harming the WC economy. No response from Harris and Winde's office promised to "investigate" (why investigate if they're making statements about it) and send me the information. They didn't. Ditto my recent request to them about their jobs claim.
Recently I warned these DA individuals by email that presenting false, unverified and unverifiable information to the National Assembly, as Hill-lewis did, and Zille the provincial legislature is against the law. They keep doing it to the public. Yet they continuously accuse the ANC of ethical violations. Let the public beware.
Interestingly, I don't know what the situation is now, but until c2016 Tshwane's and Jo'burg's economic growth rates were better than Cape Town's.
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