Thomas Johnson - The Blog

Earlier this month minerals minister Gwede Mantashe claimed at the African Energy Conference that oil and gas exploration would lead to 5 to 8% GDP growth. He was not the first minister to promise or suggest great things for the economy. Think of all those growth and job strategies over 30 years that never went anywhere and cost millions to produce.  Of course the Marxist-oriented ANC has never understood how market economies work, not even the liberal-left's heroes Ramaphosa, Manuel, Gordhan and Mboweni (I take issue with the mainstream media's hagiographies of Gordhan and Mboweni, but that's another story). ANC aside, I contend few if any SA politicians understand how the economy works and what's needed for growth, centre-right DA included. The DA said numerous times that in the WC they "created" hundreds of thousands - the number varied over time - of "new jobs" since 2009 when they took power. They based this on a faulty understanding of StatsSA...

Cape Town Olympics debate already decided Sports minister Gayton McKenzie has suggested South Africa could host the F1 Motor Race. Also, others are calling for him to initiate a feasibility study into hosting the 2040 Olympics in Cape Town. Consultants Our Future Cities say it could be done "cheaply" using the Cape Town Stadium as main venue and other existing facilities. They've named the proposal Cape Town 2040 and CT2040. But can Cape Town bid for the games cheaply even if the " deserted monstrosity " CT Stadium is used as main venue? As mega-projects around the world including SA show, they're always over-budget. The World Cup 2010 was originally budgeted around R40 billion but ended at R60 billion.  Incidentally, about the CT Stadium. In 2016 I calculated, after adding costs like employee costs of R21 million and other eg municipal services and routine maintenance the city declined to disclose saying the information "simply did not exist", tha...

South Africa's unemployment rate is catastrophic, 42%. The official rate is 32%, the remainder being discouraged jobseekers having given up looking for work (because there is none) and, by definition, not unemployed. Unemployment, though, is not discussed for the disaster it is but treated as a meme or political point scoring or as a consequence of growth. There is a direct link between unemployment and poverty but these are discussed as separate things. So when this month Tim Cohen wrote in his Daily Maverick column "Are we ready for a big debate about SA's unemployment rate?", I was encouraged. Instead, I was disappointed. His effort was worse than no discussion at all. His opening sentence "South Africa’s unemployment rate, the highest in the world, … blah, blah blah [is] worrying, irritating, demeaning and, I’m willing to bet, totally wrong [sic]" stated his intention to debunk the facts. Cohen's argument, if one can call it that - not an original on...

Frequently Ramaphosa-centric commentators in the mainstream media, ie those who are or were once but deep down still are Ramaphorias, state as fact he's this great consensus-builder and negotiator. They state so based on three-decade-old negotiations that led to 1994's elections. But otherwise they're unable to name significant instances of consensus or negotiated outcomes that Ramaphosa as president of the country was primarily responsible for.  Not examples of internal ANC deliberations, though, because they always agree what's good for the ANC. But even then, Ramaphosa is not as influential with the party's decision-makers as made out. He had to retract the trade cabinet portfolio offered to the DA, didn't he. And kept mediocre and corrupt ministers and a bloated cabinet to satisfy ANC rent-seekers when the national consensus, even among ANC-friendly commentators, is that it's not in SA's interest. So where is his supposed skill in this? Ramaphoria st...

Businessman and media owner Iqbal Surve's bank accounts were closed. He is a controversial figure and the butt of other media for his businesses practices and aggressive, narcissistic persona. He uses his media company, Independent Media, as his personal marketing department and to attack his critics and those who've crossed him. Independent Media does not have the best of reputations professionally - it pulled out of the Press Council because of its perceived unfairness but rejoined recently.  But it's Surve's ownership of investment company Sekunjalo that brought the most controversy. The Public Investment Corporation, the investment arm of the government pension fund, loaned Surve R5 billion with Sekunjalo as collateral. But the company was massively overvalued. Daily Maverick business editor Tim Cohen in reply to me yesterday about the matter: "Surve's big sin was that he convinced, how we don't know, the administrator of SA's state pensioners cash ...