South Africa's economy is in crisis

South Africa's economy is in crisis. The problems are going to take more than a few empty words by the left's favourite pres, Ramaphosa. It's structural, partly a tolerated and condoned holdover from apartheid, including social aspects, and partly deliberate decisions by the ANC (ideology) and business that affect the economy. 

Declining private expenditure and investment aka fixed capital formation are the end result of the underlying structure or nature of SA society that's proving impossible to change. 

Crime, entrenched corruption, poor education, poverty and inequality, which indirectly impacts crime, are almost entirely the fault of the ANC government. They had a window to address the legacy of apartheid but through hubris, incompetence - often plain stupidity that defies reason - and venality they cocked it up. 

ANC incompetence - I still don't understand how anyone who's doing the same job for 30 years has still not mastered it and continues to mess up - is responsible for the absence of a capable state in any sphere you name. For example, trade: for one, the ports are not working properly. Last week a retailer told me they're waiting three months for their containers because of this. Either ships must wait to offload or sail on then return when they may dock. It's costing R10,000 a day and adds to the goods' retail price, about R200 per unit.

These factors are why foreign and local investment is low - moribund growth, increasing unemployment etc. Only the brave would invest in these circumstances.

SA's uncompetitive and anti-competitive market exacerbates the problems. UCT's Prof. Haroon Bhorat: 

"Take manufacturing subsectors, on average a maximum of five firms control 70 percent of the market share – food and beverages ... You have a highly concentrated product market that doesn’t generate the kind of domestic competitiveness you need."

Bhorat speaks of really high barriers to entry, new entrants being locked out and "giant conglomerates in an oligarchic structure" advantaging from incentives and preventing SMEs from entering. 

On this, the retailer I spoke to, an independent medium-sized chain, said from next year they want to import directly and cut out local distributors and pass savings onto customers. He mentioned a large competitor, part of retail conglomerate JD Group, who're already doing that but not passing savings to customers (at times their retail price is higher than local benchmark). The way big business is done in SA: monopoly/oligarchic profits.

The state of the nation was another ho-hum speech by Frogboiler that we've heard for 30 years and not the agenda by a leader and government who desire change. The usual suspects - media, analysts - are cautiously optimistic but there's only about five years to change before failed state - Argentina etc - become a reality. 

Who to task with this responsibility, though? Useless ANC government and even more smug DA now they're part of government, or business who're doing what they've always done: make profits while doing little themselves to change the comfortable status quo.