Thomas Johnson - The Blog

Cape Town Olympics debate already decided Sports minister Gayton McKenzie has suggested South Africa could host the F1 Motor Race. Also, others are calling for him to initiate a feasibility study into hosting the 2040 Olympics in Cape Town. Consultants Our Future Cities say it could be done "cheaply" using the Cape Town Stadium as main venue and other existing facilities. They've named the proposal Cape Town 2040 and CT2040. But can Cape Town bid for the games cheaply even if the " deserted monstrosity " CT Stadium is used as main venue? As mega-projects around the world including SA show, they're always over-budget. The World Cup 2010 was originally budgeted around R40 billion but ended at R60 billion.  Incidentally, about the CT Stadium. In 2016 I calculated, after adding costs like employee costs of R21 million and other eg municipal services and routine maintenance the city declined to disclose saying the information "simply did not exist", tha...

South Africa's unemployment rate is catastrophic, 42%. The official rate is 32%, the remainder being discouraged jobseekers having given up looking for work (because there is none) and, by definition, not unemployed. Unemployment, though, is not discussed for the disaster it is but treated as a meme or political point scoring or as a consequence of growth. There is a direct link between unemployment and poverty but these are discussed as separate things. So when this month Tim Cohen wrote in his Daily Maverick column "Are we ready for a big debate about SA's unemployment rate?", I was encouraged. Instead, I was disappointed. His effort was worse than no discussion at all. His opening sentence "South Africa’s unemployment rate, the highest in the world, … blah, blah blah [is] worrying, irritating, demeaning and, I’m willing to bet, totally wrong [sic]" stated his intention to debunk the facts. Cohen's argument, if one can call it that - not an original on...

It's not only those with nefarious agendas who want to rewrite history. Seemingly sincere people do it too. For 30 years the ANC's story has been prominent: they defeated apartheid, Mandela was the Messiah and great provider, Mbeki the philosopher-king, Zuma the RET deliverer who would overturn WMC so black people could rise from poverty and subjugation. And last, Ramaphosa the reformer and corruption buster. All hail ramaphoria! Each leader had their acolytes and mythology. Zuma, after everyone thought he would retire, with the ANC and government's help formed the MK Party from disaffected members. Ramaphosa, in addition to being a suburb businessman, was the great negotiator and consensus-builder who would provide South Africa with investment, growth and jobs. When that failed to emerge during the first half of his presidency, the story changed to him having to bring like-minded ANC members on board.  Only during the last two years did the narrative unravel to reveal, to ...

Opinion among media commentators is the ANC, DA with IFP have done South Africans proud with the coalition, GNU as the ANC call it. Credit where it's due but survival - SA's - if the wrong choice was made, focused minds. But rather than Ramaphosa being the architect of the coalition who suddenly shook off years of dithering and wreckage to become the ace negotiator he purportedly is, the decision was made for him/ANC when MK and EFF presented their expected tempestuous demands. Had they not, they'd be the ANC's partners and not DA. And that would be that. But even now, the future's uncertain. After all that's happened there's still this odd perception Ramaphosa is a good leader, an ethical person, a good "negotiator". Perhaps his many admirers have Stockholm Syndrome.  The negotiator bit is based on 30-year-old ancient history. The NP gave in to all(?) ANC's demands because they had no choice - the game was over and they conceded to prevent dan...

Media, political and business commentators have greeted the grand coalition, or government of national unity (GNU) as the ANC calls it, with hope. Leftwing mainstream commentators are now reverting to their default ANC and Ramaphosa-centric positions after the last few years of pessimism and abandonment. Like the previous, original Ramaphoria (v1.0), they expect a lot from him and the GNU, his purported, exaggerated qualities advertised, his failures forgotten. One typical example of Ramaphoria v2.0 is Daily Maverick 168's editor Heather Robertson last week. She fulsomely wrote of citizens' paradoxical initiatives in Johannesburg and Durban, where municipal and goverment services have collapsed due to ANC incompetence, corruption and mismanagement, to remedy government duties as optimism.  It's one thing to volunteer - back in the day I was a volunteer in my community including police forum to help rectify the near collapse of the local police station's management; we l...

Frequently Ramaphosa-centric commentators in the mainstream media, ie those who are or were once but deep down still are Ramaphorias, state as fact he's this great consensus-builder and negotiator. They state so based on three-decade-old negotiations that led to 1994's elections. But otherwise they're unable to name significant instances of consensus or negotiated outcomes that Ramaphosa as president of the country was primarily responsible for.  Not examples of internal ANC deliberations, though, because they always agree what's good for the ANC. But even then, Ramaphosa is not as influential with the party's decision-makers as made out. He had to retract the trade cabinet portfolio offered to the DA, didn't he. And kept mediocre and corrupt ministers and a bloated cabinet to satisfy ANC rent-seekers when the national consensus, even among ANC-friendly commentators, is that it's not in SA's interest. So where is his supposed skill in this? Ramaphoria st...